{"id":86303,"date":"2013-08-27T15:29:32","date_gmt":"2013-08-27T13:29:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandzakpress.net\/arhiva\/?p=86303"},"modified":"2013-08-27T15:30:39","modified_gmt":"2013-08-27T13:30:39","slug":"mubarakovo-prorocanstvo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandzakpress.net\/arhiva\/mubarakovo-prorocanstvo\/","title":{"rendered":"Mubarakovo proro\u010danstvo"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Autor: Mirnes Kova\u010d<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Prije ne\u0161to vi\u0161e od godinu dana sam na ovom mjestu napisao tekst “Mubarakovo nedovr\u0161eno proro\u010danstvo”. Bilo je to u maju, 2012, nakon prvog kruga predsjedni\u010dkih izbora kada je “iznena\u0111uju\u0107e” mnogo glasova odnio Ahmed \u0160efik, biv\u0161i premijer iz Mubarakovog re\u017eima.
\nPodsjeti\u0107emo da je i u drugom krugu sada ve\u0107 svrgnuti predsjednik Mursi \u0160efika pobijedio tijesnom ve\u0107inom.
\nI tada, a i sada, upravo zbog tih pokazatelja, ustru\u010davao sam se previranja u Egiptu nazvati revolucijom. Ako je i\u0161ta upokojeno u posljednjim de\u0161avanjima u ovoj najmnogoljudnijoj arapskoj zemlji onda je to, uslovno kazano, revolucija, “as-sawra” kako je Egip\u0107ani zovu.
\n<\/b><\/p>\n

Sudska farsa<\/b><\/center>
\nPosljednji slu\u010daj pu\u0161tanja na slobodu, odnosno u ku\u0107ni pritvor biv\u0161eg diktatora Mubaraka i sva sudska farsa oko njegovih optu\u017enica to dodatno potvr\u0111uju.
\nTakozvana “duboka dr\u017eava” koju su Mubarak i njegovi prethodnici, armijski generali-predsjednici, godinama gradili definitivno je pokazala posljednjim vojnim udarom i svrgavanjem prvog demokratski izabranog predsjednika u povijesti ove zemlje da nigdje nije oti\u0161la i da je kratkotrajni demokratski eksperiment samo to \u0161to je ustvari i bio – eksperiment.
\nSigurnost kao koncept i demagogija na kojoj se godinama gradila egipatska diktatura vojnih predsjednika ide ruku pod ruku, na\u017ealost, i sa impulsima koji su u klju\u010dnim trenucima za\u010detka ovih procesa dolazili od decenjskih zapadnih zagovara\u010da demokracije na Bliskom Istoku.
\nJer, podsjeti\u0107emo se, Mubarak je trideset godina svoje vladavine i svijetu i Egiptu kao mantru ponavljao da ta zemlja ima dva izbora: ili njega i sigurnost ili islamiste i haos. To njegovo “proro\u010danstvo” kona\u010dno se ispunilo proteklih sedmica kada je policija i vojska prekomjernom silom rastjerala i pobila stotine demonstranata koji su protestvovali i zahtijevali povrat demokratskog legitimiteta.
\nSada, kada je Mubarak kona\u010dno iza\u0161ao iz zatvora Tora, uz osmijeh kojeg nije krio, mo\u017ee slavodobitno poentirati: “Zar vam nisam to ponavljao godinama?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
\nBiv\u0161i egipatski predsjednik je stavljen u ku\u0107ni pritvor [Reuters]<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Pitanje kojeg sada mnogi postavljaju glasi: kakvi scenariji mogu o\u010dekivati ovu o\u0161trim linijama podijeljenu zemlju? Spominju se tri.
\nPrvi je nacionalno pomirenje. Vrlo \u0107e se te\u0161ko ostvariti, barem u kratkoro\u010dnom smislu, s obzirom na opseg zlo\u010dina kojeg su prema demonstrantima po\u010dinile vojne vlasti. S druge strane, satanizacija Muslimanske bra\u0107e i sistematska (medijska) nastojanja da se pripadnici i simpatizeri ovog pokreta proka\u017eu kao teroristi nikako ne ide ka tom smjeru. Jer, kako se pomiriti s teroristima, jo\u0161 ako ih je toliko mnogo kao \u0161to ih ima u Egiptu? Iako se ne zna kako \u0107e na ove poteze vlasti reagirati mla\u0111e generacije Muslimanske bra\u0107e, ono \u0161to bi bilo dugoro\u010dno najkorisnije za neke budu\u0107e demokratske izglede, ukoliko ih uop\u0107e bude, i za pripadnike Muslimanske bra\u0107e jeste pomirenje sa realno te\u0161kim okolnostima, reorganizacija i reformiranje. Me\u0111utim, izgleda da to vojnim vlastima nikako ne odgovara i da \u0107e radije prihvatiti liniju sukoba do kona\u010dnog uni\u0161tenja. To, dakako, ne isklju\u010duje ni ozbiljno uru\u0161avanje vojnih i dr\u017eavnih struktura.
\nDruga opcija koja podrazumijeva instaliranje generala Al-Sisija kao civilnog predsjednika je najizglednija.
\nNjegova fotografija i imid\u017e nacionalnog spasitelja veoma je prisutna ovih dana u Egiptu. Vojska je demonstrantima protiv Mursija dijelila njegove postere, njegove fotografije su na naslovnicama svih egipatskih novina, a nedavno je ovaj general prvi put vi\u0111en u javnosti bez vojne uniforme, dakle u civilnom odijelu. Al-Sisi ima i recept kojeg je ostavio Mubarak, a i vojne i sigurnosne strukture da tzv. “Mapom puta” osigura sebi lagan put do predsjedni\u010dke pala\u010de. Posrnule egipatske liberalne snage koje su ga pozvale da spasi demokraciju ne\u0107e mu imati \u0161ta kazati. Njihov najistaknutiji reprezentativac Al-Baradei je pobjegao u Be\u010d. K tomu ga u domovini jo\u0161 \u010deka optu\u017enica za izdaju. A na egipatskoj politi\u010dkoj sceni te\u0161ko je na\u0107i imalo ozbiljnijeg lidera koji bi mogao ugroziti generala Al-Sisija.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Najopasniji scenario<\/b><\/center>
\nTre\u0107i scenario je gra\u0111anski rat koji je ujedno i najopasniji jer bi time fakti\u010dki pola regiona arapskog Bliskog Istoka bilo u ratu. To je najgora opcija i za Zapad koji je sve vi\u0161e svjestan da bi onda bilo gotovo nemogu\u0107e na\u0107i silu koja bi taj haos zaustavila. Dokaz tome je ve\u0107 tre\u0107a godina gra\u0111anskog rata u Siriji i stalno pomjeranje “crvenih linija” – od masakra do masakra.
\nZapadu je ipak najva\u017enija sigurnost i tu le\u017ei glavni problem oko dvostrukih standarda i ga\u017eenja vlastitih principa.
\nAmeri\u010dka vanjska politika u slu\u010daju Bliskog Istoka ve\u0107 du\u017ee vremena je dijagnosticirana kao proma\u0161aj i to od strane ameri\u010dkih kriti\u010dara Obamine administracije.
\nMuslimanski narodi su u Americi dugo vremena vidjeli paradigmu slobode i ljudskih prava. Posljednje decenije antiamerikanizma su ipak nastale kao reakcije na predatorski ameri\u010dki impuls u ratu protiv terorizma koji je u muslimanskoj preferiji, a ne u centrima mo\u0107i, tra\u017eio odgovorne za teroristi\u010dke napade. Jer, ne treba nikad zaboraviti, jedno od glavnih jezgra formiranja ideologije Al-Kaide nisu planine Afganistana ve\u0107 zatvorske \u0107elije Egipta. Upravo tu su zbog ugnjetavanja sli\u010dnog onom kojeg provodi sada\u0161nja egipatska vojna hunta stvorene opasne ideologije koje su u muslimanskim dr\u017eavama i njihovim zapadnim saveznicima prepoznale najve\u0107e neprijatelje.
\nA, op\u0107enito, muslimanski slobodarski duh je itekako cijenio vizije o\u010deva osniva\u010da Sjedinjenih Dr\u017eava poput Benjamina Franklina i Georga Washingtona. “Oni koji bi da se odreknu su\u0161tinske slobode zarad da time kupe ne\u0161to malo privremene sigurnosti ne zaslu\u017euju ni slobodu ni sigurnost”, kazao je jedne prilike Benjamin Franklin. Muslimanski narodi su upravo u ovakvim slobodarskim vizijama vidjeli izazove svojim doma\u0107im tirani(ja)ma.
\nMe\u0111utim, dana\u0161nja retorika i pasivnost vode\u0107ih svjetskih sila uklju\u010duju\u0107i SAD i EU blok, bli\u017ei su konceptu kojeg je godinama ponavljao Mubarak: ja na vlasti i sigurnost, jer ukoliko do\u0111u islamisti ima\u0107ete fanatike i haos.
\nMubarakovo proro\u010danstvo se izgleda ispunilo, a kojim \u0107e od tri scenarija krenuti Egipat ostaje da se vidi. Demokratskim vrlo te\u0161ko.\u00a0(aljazeera.net)<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mirnes Kova\u010d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":86304,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10196],"tags":[10228,10318],"class_list":{"0":"post-86303","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iz-pera-nasih-autora","8":"tag-egipat","9":"tag-mirnes-kovac"},"yoast_head":"\nMubarakovo proro\u010danstvo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sandzakpress.net\/arhiva\/mubarakovo-prorocanstvo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"bs_BA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mubarakovo proro\u010danstvo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Mirnes Kova\u010d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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