{"id":221636,"date":"2019-04-14T23:15:26","date_gmt":"2019-04-14T21:15:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandzakpress.net\/arhiva\/da-li-je-libija-nova-ruska-sirija"},"modified":"2019-04-14T23:15:26","modified_gmt":"2019-04-14T21:15:26","slug":"da-li-je-libija-nova-ruska-sirija","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandzakpress.net\/arhiva\/da-li-je-libija-nova-ruska-sirija\/","title":{"rendered":"Da li je Libija nova ruska Sirija?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\"Russland<\/p>\n

Sukob u Libiji se zao\u0161trava. Reakcije iz Moskve za sada su hladne i racionalne. Tokom posjete Egiptu, ruski ministar spoljnih poslova Sergej Lavrov je kazao da je zadatak Rusije taj da \u201elibijskom narodu pomogne da se prevazi\u0111u neslaganja i da se postigne stabilan sporazum\u201d, kako bi se zava\u0111ene strane pomirile. I portparol Kremlja Dmitrij Peskov nedavno je kazao da \u0107e Rusija iskoristiti svaku priliku kako bi sve strane pozvala da izbjegnu prolijevanje krvi i ubijanje civila.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Delikatna diplomatska situacija<\/strong><\/p>\n

Od po\u010detka aprila snage mo\u0107nog generala Kalife Haftara se pribli\u017eavaju glavnom gradu Tripoliju. U njemu je me\u0111unarodno priznata vlada premijera Fajisa al Seraja, koja Haftara optu\u017euje da planira pu\u010d. Haftar je vo\u0111a samoprogla\u0161ene \u201eLibijske nacionalne armije\u201c, koju podr\u017eava protivni\u010dka vlada na istoku zemlje.<\/p>\n

U sukobu koji eskalira, Rusija se za sada nije jasno opredijelila za jednu stranu. \u201eZa Rusiju je to veoma delikatna diplomatska situacija\u201c, ka\u017ee Vja\u010deslav Matuzov, dugogodi\u0161nji diplomata, koji trenutno radi kao nezavisni stru\u010dnjak za Bliski istok.<\/p>\n

Najbli\u017ei saveznici Rusije u tom sukobu podr\u017eavaju razli\u010dite strane: Turska i Al\u017eir su na primjer na strani vlade u Tripoliju, koju priznaju i Ujedinjene nacije. Sa druge strane, Egipat i Saudijska Arabija podr\u017eavaju generala Haftara. Egipat i Al\u017eir su dva najva\u017enija kupca ruskog oru\u017eja. Turska je za Rusiju generalno va\u017ean me\u0111unarodni partner. Dvije zemlje sara\u0111uju u ratu u Siriji i nedavno je Turska \u010dak naru\u010dila rakete iz Rusije. Posao koji je nai\u0161ao na nerazumijevanje NATO partnera.<\/p>\n

\"Tripolis<\/a>Snage libijske vlade pripremaju kontraofanzivu protiv generala Haftara\n<\/div>\n

Glavni razlog zbog kojeg se Rusija upli\u0107e u tu diplomatsku zbrku, je strah od haosa u Libiji, obja\u0161njava Matuzov. To bi naime moglo da vodi ka novom ja\u010danju takozvane Islamske dr\u017eave, \u0161to bi za Rusiju bio bezbjednosni problem.<\/p>\n

Libija \u2013 hod po tankoj \u017eici<\/strong><\/p>\n

I nezavisni ruski vojni analiti\u010dar Pavel Felgenhauer ka\u017ee da je Libija za Moskvu diplomatska zagonetka: \u201eRusija \u0107e veoma pa\u017eljivo pristupiti tom sukobu i ne\u0107e otvoreno da se pozicionira na jednu odre\u0111enu stranu.\u201c Ali dok Matuzov nagla\u0161ava da neutralne izjave Rusije odra\u017eavaju stav vlade, Felgenhauer smatra da je \u201eo\u010digledno\u201c da Moskva podr\u017eava Haftara. Me\u0111utim, Kremlj to za sada \u017eestoko pori\u010de.<\/p>\n

\u010cinjenica je to da su rusku vladu u Moskvi ve\u0107 posjetili i premijer al Seraj i general Haftar. Me\u0111utim, djeluje kao da je Kremlj ne\u0161to naklonjeniji Haftaru. On je 2016. godine tri puta posjetio Moskvu, a 2017. se \u010dak ukrcao na glavni ruski nosa\u010d aviona \u201eAdmiral Kuznjecov\u201c \u2013 navodno da bi odr\u017eao video konferenciju sa ruskim ministrom odbrane Sergejom \u0160ojguom.<\/p>\n

Felgenhauer vjeruje da je novac glavni razlog za naklonjenost Moskve Haftaru. On ima glavnu rije\u010d u gotovo svim dijelovima zemlje u kojima se proizvodi nafta. \u201eTo zna\u010di: on ima novac. A to zna\u010di da je va\u017ean za Moskvu\u201c, ka\u017ee analiti\u010dar.<\/p>\n

I pored embarga na uvoz oru\u017eja koje su UN uvele Libiji, Felgenhauer ka\u017ee da bi Rusija mogla da proba Haftaru da proda oru\u017eje. Procjenjuje se da je smrt dugogodi\u0161njeg libijskog diktatora Muamera el Gadafija Rusiji donijela milijarde dolara od prodaje oru\u017eja.<\/p>\n

Rusija je 7. aprila blokirala saop\u0161tenje Savjeta bezbijednosti UN, kojim taj gremijum poziva Haftara da zaustavi prodor ka Tripoliju. Veto-sila Rusija je pritom ukazala da bi sve snage u zemlji trebalo da obustave vojne aktivnosti. Prema mi\u0161ljenju Felgenhauera to je jasan znak da Rusija pre\u0161utno podr\u017eava Haftara.<\/p>\n

\"Russland<\/a>Susret ministra vanjskih poslova Rusije Sergeja Lavrova i libijskog premijera Fajisa al-Seraja 2017.\n<\/div>\n

Magloviti znaci<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prema pojedinim medijskim izvje\u0161tajima, Rusija, me\u0111utim, tra\u017ei konkretne puteve kako bi se pozicionirala u libijskom sukobu. Krajem 2018. godine ruski dnevni list\u00a0RBC<\/em>, pozivaju\u0107i se na izvore bliske ruskom ministarstvu odbrane, javio je da se ruske snage nalaze na istoku Libije. Nezavisni list\u00a0Novaja Gazeta<\/em>\u00a0objavio je video snimak na kojem se vidi biznismen Jevgenij Prigo\u0161in kako u Moskvi razgovora sa generalom Haftarom.<\/p>\n

Prigo\u0161in je blizak predsjedniku Vladimiru Putinu. Njegova uloga u ruskom aparatu mo\u0107i je nejasna. Navodno je na \u010delu \u201efabrike trolova\u201c za socijalne medije i na \u010delu jedne privatne vojne kompanije zvane \u201eVagner grupa\u201c. Ta kompanija se navodno pojavljuje u svim svjetskim sukobima, poput Ukrajine, Sirije, Venecuele i Centralnoafri\u010dke Republike.<\/p>\n

Biv\u0161i diplomata Matuzov ka\u017ee da nije mogu\u0107e da Rusija u Libiju \u0161alje pla\u0107ene vojnike. Takve vijesti su, isti\u010de, \u201edezinformacije\u201c. Da je tako, ve\u0107 odavno bi se za to znalo, smatra Matuzov. Jer, u Libiji nema tajni, zato \u0161to se borci uvijek iznova prebacuju iz jedne borbene grupe u drugu \u2013 \u201eu zavisnosti od situacije na terenu”.<\/p>\n

\"Libyen<\/a>Intervencija u Libiji se, prema mi\u0161ljenju analiti\u010dara, ne uklapa u ruske strate\u0161ke ciljeve\n<\/div>\n

Sa druge strane, vojni stru\u010dnjak Felgenhauer smatra da je vrlo vjerovatno da su ruski pla\u0107enici na libijskom tlu ili u libijskom vazdu\u0161nom prostoru. To bi bilo elegantno re\u0161enje za ruski diplomatski problem u zemlji, vjeruje Felgenhauer. S obzirom da privatni vojnici ne mogu da se dovedu u direktnu vezu sa vladom, Rusija sa njima mo\u017ee aktivno da se umije\u0161a u sukob i da istovremeno ne napada.<\/p>\n

Sirija 2.0?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po\u010detkom 2018. godine Rusija je najavila da \u0107e povu\u0107i vojne snage iz Sirije \u2013 time je rasplamsala sumnje o mogu\u0107oj vojnoj operaciji u Libiji. Ipak, malo je vjerovatno da Rusija u Libiji planira neku ve\u0107u vojnu intervenciju, kao \u0161to je bio slu\u010daj prije \u010detiri godine u Siriji. Prije svega zato \u0161to je u Siriji jo\u0161 uvijek aktivna.<\/p>\n

\u201eZadatak u Siriji jo\u0161 uvijek nije zavr\u0161en”, obja\u0161njava Felgenhauer. \u201eI kapaciteti Rusa su ve\u0107 preoptere\u0107eni. Nismo vi\u0161e u Sovjetskom Savezu.\u201c Analiti\u010dar dodaje i da se intervencija u Libiji ne uklapa u ruske strate\u0161ke ciljeve. \u201eGlavni pokreta\u010d ruske spoljne i vojne politike je anti-amerikanizam. To funkcioni\u0161e u Siriji i Venecueli. Ali u Libiji uop\u0161te nije jasno koga Amerikanci podr\u017eavaju.\u201c<\/p>\n

Ni Matuzov ne vjeruje da \u0107e Libija biti nova Sirija za Rusiju. Dvije vojne baze koje je Rusija postavila u Siriji, dovoljne su za ostvarivanje ciljeva na Bliskom istoku. Jo\u0161 jednu, smatra Matuzov, Moskva sebi ne mo\u017ee da priu\u0161ti. I kona\u010dno, velikom vojnom ofanzivom kao \u0161to je bila u Siriji, Rusija bi se samo uvukla u nevolje. \u201eLibija je poput \u017eivog pijeska. Svako ko u nju kro\u010di, tone.\u201c<\/p>\n

dw.com<\/p>\n

<\/span>
\nPogledajte vijest na izvornom sajtu:<\/p>\n

Da li je Libija nova ruska Sirija?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sukob u Libiji se zao\u0161trava. Reakcije iz Moskve za sada su hladne i racionalne. Tokom posjete Egiptu, ruski ministar spoljnih poslova Sergej Lavrov je kazao da je zadatak Rusije taj da \u201elibijskom narodu pomogne da se prevazi\u0111u neslaganja i da se postigne stabilan sporazum\u201d, kako bi se zava\u0111ene strane pomirile. I portparol Kremlja Dmitrij Peskov […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":221637,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[10499],"class_list":{"0":"post-221636","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svijet","8":"tag-a"},"yoast_head":"\nDa li je Libija nova ruska Sirija?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sandzakpress.net\/arhiva\/da-li-je-libija-nova-ruska-sirija\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"bs_BA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Da li je Libija nova ruska Sirija?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sukob u Libiji se zao\u0161trava. Reakcije iz Moskve za sada su hladne i racionalne. Tokom posjete Egiptu, ruski ministar spoljnih poslova Sergej Lavrov je kazao da je zadatak Rusije taj da \u201elibijskom narodu pomogne da se prevazi\u0111u neslaganja i da se postigne stabilan sporazum\u201d, kako bi se zava\u0111ene strane pomirile. 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